Global Economy’s Rebound Will Determine Shipping’s Turnaournd as Well

As various governments around the world are gradually shaping their stimulus and policies to jolt their economy, the shipping industry is eagerly waiting for them to take effect and translate into a growth in global trade. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Intermodal said that “earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People’s Congress, following over two months of delays due to the coronavirus outbreak. Chinese Premier Li announced that China would not set a GDP growth target for 2020. This move can be also interpreted as a signal that the government is prepared to accept a low level of growth in 2020″.

According to Theodore Ntalakos, SnP Broker with Intermodal, “the second key announcement following the COVID-19 disruption and much to the joy of the dry bulk community, was the infrastructure-focused fiscal stimulus of RMB 4.75trillion (USD670b). This includes increased local government spending quota and special treasury bonds, a key source for infrastructure funding. The government hopes this stimulus will bring growth targets back on track but it will also help with employment and as a result social stability”.

 

Ntalakos added that “China’s stimulus package is, in absolute numbers, larger than its 2008 response but a lot of analysts expected even more as the Chinese economy is significantly larger compared to 12 years ago (meaning that this stimulus is a smaller percentage of GDP) and as the US has already pledged over US$3 trillion into its own economy. And while the two world powers – USA and China – have experienced longstanding friction over trade wars, tensions have risen dramatically amid the pandemic”.

According to Intermodal’s broker, “on the one hand, representatives from the USA and China keep pledging their continued support for the phase one trade deal, with China just last week announcing a new list of US products eligible to be excluded from retaliatory tariffs. On the other hand, President Trump facing re-election this year and being criticized for his handling of the pandemic, is blaming China for trying to cover up the outbreak. Beijing’s officials have urged the US to stop wasting time with the “political virus” and repeated their assertions that China has acted responsibly to safeguard global public health. On a hugely symbolic gesture, when the US banned all flights from many EU countries, China sent medical teams and supplies to countries like Italy and Iran who were at the time at the “eye” of the pandemic”.

He added that “globally, as the pandemic and lockdowns continue and the economic effect from the pandemic proves more severe than what was originally estimated, countries around the world are shyly looking at the next day and have now deployed a massive $9 trillion of global fiscal support to help people and companies get through this crisis”.

“As China started reopening its economy, data from IMF shows that world exports initially recovered across the board. Specifically for oil, the recent export performance is particularly strong but as oil is being stored at sea, the surge in exports is not fully matched by imports. It is quite certain, that when the virus is eventually defeated, China’s economic resurgence is going to play a critical role in helping to rebuild the shattered global economy”, Ntalakos concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide