UK GAS-Price falls on lower demand, traders watch Norway flows

The British wholesale day-ahead gas price fell on Thursday due to warmer weather and lower demand expectations but signs of possible reduced flows from Norway in the future prompted prices further along the curve to rise.

* Day-ahead gas fell 0.85 pence to 35.40 pence per therm by 0820 GMT.

* The weekend gas price was 1.15 pence higher at 36.25 p/therm.

* Within-day gas was yet to trade.

* Weather forecasters increased the temperature outlook by 1.5 degrees Celsius for Thursday to 11.7 degrees on average in Britain and by a further 1.2 degrees for Friday.

* That helped reduce residential gas demand expectations by 13 million cubic metres (mcm) to 108 mcm for Thursday and by 18 mcm to 91 mcm for Friday.

* Additionally, peak wind power generation is forecast at 6.8 gigawatts (GW) compared to 5.2 GW on Wednesday.

* Higher wind generation tends to reduce gas for power demand, which is expected to be 53 mcm compared to 64 mcm the previous day.

* Liquefied natural gas (LNG) deliveries continued with an Angolan cargo expected to unload after the Sonangol Benguela tanker arrived at the Isle of Grain terminal overnight.

* That should increase send-out from LNG terminals to 47 mcm on Friday from 37 mcm on Thursday, with another three tankers expected to arrive by Tuesday.

* But the gas system was expected to be 11 mcm undersupplied with demand at 206.4 mcm and supply at 195.4 mcm, according to National Grid data.

* Flows along the Langeled pipeline from Norway were nominated at 28 mcm, far lower than the 52 mcm rate at which gas flowed on Wednesday.

* Entry measurements put flows along the pipeline at 45 mcm, just 7 mcm lower.

* Traders noted a notification on the Norwegian regulator’s site of an unnamed field experiencing an unspecified outage as of Thursday morning.

* But the lower nominations also prompted speculation that gas field operator Equinor had reduced flows for commercial reasons.

* The May gas contract rose 0.45 pence to 37.70 p/therm.

* The benchmark Dec-19 EU carbon contract fell 0.12 euro to 27.34 euros per tonne.

* Day-ahead gas at the Dutch TTF hub edged 0.05 euros higher to 15.10 euros per megawatt hour.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Sabina Zawadzki; Editing by Jan Harvey)