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Euro zone business growth grinds to a halt as services struggle – flash PMIs

Euro zone business growth almost ground to a halt this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again, a survey showed on Friday. IHS Markit’s flash composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, seen as a reliable guide to economic health, was 50.3, down from October’s 50.6 and moving towards the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. That was below all expectations in a Reuters poll which had predicted 50.9 and only just shy of a more than ...

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Trump says we have a deal with China, ‘potentially very close’

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that a trade deal with China is “potentially very close” and that he stands with both the people of Hong Kong and Chinese President Xi Jinping amid massive protests in Hong Kong. Trump, speaking on Fox News Channel’s “Fox & Friends,” said he had made clear to Xi that “this can’t be an even deal” because of China’s trade surplus with the United States. “We have to stand with Hong Kong but I’m also standing with President Xi,” said Trump. Source: Reuters (Reporting ...

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Euro zone needs to create its own economic growth at home: ECB’s Lagarde

The euro zone needs to create more of its economic growth at home, including via greater public investment, if it is to withstand weakness abroad and become more balanced internally, new European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. Lagarde did not discuss monetary policy in her first major speech since becoming ECB President at the start of this month, merely saying the central bank would continue to do its part to support the economy. Instead, she chose to send a message to euro zone governments, calling on them ...

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U.S. labor market, manufacturing data point to slowing economy

The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits was unexpectedly unchanged at a five-month high last week, suggesting some softening in the labor market. While other data on Thursday showed a mild pick-up in factory activity in the mid-Atlantic region this month, manufacturers reported a sharp slowdown in new orders, shipments and unfilled orders. There were also declines in factory employment and hours measures. The persistent weakness in manufacturing is despite an easing in tensions in the 16-month trade war between the United States and China, which has depressed ...

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ECB’s Battle on Fiscal Front May Need Lagarde to Change Tack

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is facing calls to refocus her lobbying for looser fiscal policy on a euro-zone budget, rather than seeking national stimulus. While both she and the ECB have previously pressed governments to spend more rather than rely on monetary policy to fight slower economic growth, some are starting to wonder if that’s really a battle worth fighting. The evidence that national stimulus helps the euro economy is limited, while heckling governments is politically fraught and potentially fruitless. Even Lagarde’s predecessor, Mario Draghi, shifted emphasis in ...

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German exports to United States jump despite trade tensions

Strong German exports to the United States helped Europe’s largest economy to avoid a recession in the third quarter, data showed, as companies benefitted from a weaker euro and trade diversion linked to the U.S.-China tariff dispute. The detailed trade figures, compiled for Reuters from the Federal Statistics Office, underline that U.S. demand for German goods remains strong, undaunted by President Donald Trump’s threats to increase import tariffs on European cars. Germany’s export-reliant economy avoided slipping into recession in the third quarter as consumers, state spending and construction drove a ...

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Eurobarometer survey: Majority of EU citizens positive about international trade

The results of a special Eurobarometer survey published today by the European Commission show that 60% of Europeans feel that they personally benefit from international trade, 16 percentage points more than 10 years ago at the time of the previous poll. The survey also revealed that 71% of respondents believe that the EU is more effective in defending their countries’ trade interests than these countries acting on their own. Commissioner for Trade, Cecilia Malmström said: ”When I took office five years ago, there was a lot of criticism against international ...

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China’s GDP growth will slip below 6% at some point. Now is good: Russell

There is some cognitive dissonance at work when it comes to China’s economy. The market believes that 6% growth is a line in the sand for Beijing and GDP cannot be allowed to go below that, but at the same time everybody knows that at some point it will. Holding both these views simultaneously means that investors and China analysts can be both bullish that the government will continue to stimulate the economy, but also bearish that at some point Beijing will lack the ability to provide enough stimulus to ...

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Greek economy to grow 2.8% in 2020 on investment, lower taxes, budget projects

Greece expects its economy to grow by 2.8% next year, driven by higher investments, improving domestic demand and tax cuts as the country recovers from a decade-long debt crisis. Data from the 2020 budget, formally submitted to parliament for approval on Thursday, also forecast a primary surplus of 3.56% of gross domestic product next year, with debt falling to 167% percent of GDP from 173.3% this year. Greece emerged from international bailouts supervised by its lenders in August 2018. But it still needs to meet fiscal targets, including a primary ...

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Economic Outlook: Weak trade and investment threaten long-term growth

Trade conflict, weak business investment and persistent political uncertainty are weighing on the world economy and raising the risk of long-term stagnation, according to the OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. World GDP growth is expected to be 2.9% this year – its lowest annual rate since the financial crisis – and remain at 2.9%-3.0% in 2020 and 2021. Global GDP expanded 3.5% in 2018. Bold action is needed to address both the high levels of uncertainty facing businesses as well as the fundamental changes taking place in the global economy. Policy-making ...

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China says it will strive to reach ‘phase one’ trade deal with U.S.

China will strive to reach an initial trade agreement with the United States as both sides keep communication channels open, the Chinese commerce ministry said on Thursday, in an attempt to allay fears talks might be unravelling. China is willing to work with the United States to resolve each other’s core concerns on the basis of equality and mutual respect, and will try hard to reach a “phase one” deal, Gao Feng, spokesman at the ministry, told reporters. “This is in line with the interests of both China and the ...

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European banks face large capital shortfall with Basel III rules – study

European banks could need as much as 400 billion euros (341.95 billion pounds) in capital to comply with new rules aimed at making the global financial system better able to bear potential losses, a study commissioned by the European Union’s banking lobby showed. Under the new rules, which are known as Basel III, an “output floor” would limit the extent to which a bank’s capital buffers, calculated according to the lender’s own risk models, can differ from levels where they would stand under more conservative standard models. The aim of ...

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Singapore Sees Economic Recovery in 2020 as Growth Rebounds

Singapore’s economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than earlier estimated, with the city state projecting the recovery will take hold next year. The final reading of gross domestic product showed the economy grew an annualized 2.1% in the third quarter from the previous three months, versus a previous projection of 0.6%, the Ministry of Trade & Industry said in a report Thursday. The economy is set to expand 0.5%-2.5% next year, compared with 0.5%-1% this year, it said. Compared with a year ago, GDP rose 0.5% ...

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GlobalData : Brexit boost for UK savings market as higher wages and uncertainty prompts more households to save

Brexit boost for UK savings market as higher wages and uncertainty prompts more households to save Posted in Banking, Press Release A combination of Brexit and macro-economic factors has led to the savings ratio rising in 2019, reaching 6.8% in July 2019 from 5.7% a year ago, and under 4% from its low point in April 2017, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company. The company’s latest report, ‘UK Savings 2019: Review, Forecasts, and Future Opportunities’, reveals lower gross domestic product (GDP) and higher real wage growth have ...

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Manufacturing Activity Rises in November — Philly Fed

Manufacturing activity continued to rise in the mid-Atlantic region in November, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday. The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s index of business activity rose to 10.4 in November from a reading of 5.6 in October. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expected a reading of 5. The new order index declined to 8.4 in November from 26.2 in October. The index that gauges current shipments declined to 9.8 in November from 18.9 last month. The index tracking unfilled orders fell to 6 ...

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