The latest ICAEW Economic Insight report for the Middle East, prepared by Oxford Economics, said that the GCC region is poised for a significant rebound, with growth projected to more than double to 4.4% in 2025. The report highlighted that while economic growth in the Middle East is projected at 2.1% in 2024, a significant acceleration to 3.7% is expected in 2025. The report emphasised the resilience of the GCC’s non-energy sectors, which are expected to expand by 4.2% this year and 4.4% in 2025. Recent PMI readings suggest strong ...

Central Europe is experiencing its biggest floods in decades, which is expected to cost billions in economic losses. Economic losses due to the latest flooding in central Europe are significant. The first estimations show that the cost of the current floods alone could surpass a billion euros, but the precise costs are yet to be summed up as the torrential rain from Storm Boris keeps pounding the region, leaving a mounting death toll and considerable damage behind. One estimation suggests that the bill could range from several hundred million euros ...

U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded sharply in August, but a moderate increase in building permits suggested that the momentum was unlikely to be sustained against the backdrop of rising supply of new homes on the market. The jump in single-family housing starts reported by the U.S. Commerce Department on Wednesday probably reflected the fading drag from Hurricane Beryl, which had depressed homebuilding in the South. Homebuilders could also face a challenge from increasing inventory of previously owned homes for sale, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates on ...

Beneath the surface of the latest UK CPI report, there are signs that the inflation story is slowly but surely moving in the right direction. That might sound weird, given that services inflation rose from 5.2% to 5.6% in August. Remember this is the guiding light for the Bank of England when it comes to rate cuts, and although today’s move was widely predicted, it looks like it is moving in the wrong direction. Appearances can be deceiving. The fact is that the recent nudge higher in services inflation is ...

The Bank of England may sit out this month’s interest rate cutting bonanza, but Thursday’s meeting will still be meaningful, as it will throw a spotlight on the BoE’s delicate dance with the UK Treasury. The BoE’s hesitation in delivering its second rate cut of the year is partly due to questions about how it will incorporate next month’s budget statement from the new UK Labour government into its thinking on inflation and growth over the next year. The UK government’s murmuring thus far indicate that it’s going to put ...

Volunteers and emergency personnel raced to secure river banks and buildings in Poland and Hungary on Tuesday as flood waters that have wreaked havoc across central Europe began to rise in new areas and the Czech Republic reported another death. The worst floods to hit central Europe in at least two decades have left a trail of destruction from Romania to Poland, spreading mud and debris in towns, destroying bridges, submerging cars and leaving authorities and householders with a bill for damages that will run into billions of dollars. Authorities ...

As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its much-anticipated rate-easing cycle on Wednesday, interest-rate cuts in the months ahead may be shallower than the market expects. Some major investors and analysts see a rate-cutting cycle that could leave rates at relatively high levels due to the ongoing strength of the economy and say that deep cuts would only make sense if there is a recession ahead. “My sense is that what markets currently expect from the Fed regarding lower interest rates goes beyond what most Fed officials and economists are comfortable ...

Traders in global financial markets are facing extraordinary uncertainty as they await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut on Wednesday, setting up markets for a burst of volatility. Major brokerages expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its two-day monetary policy meeting, even as financial markets price in a good chance of policymakers starting the easing cycle with a 50-bps reduction. Fed funds futures 0#FF:, which reflect the market’s expectations for the future of monetary policy, have rallied to push the ...

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday almost certainlywill lower interest rates for the first time in more than four years as the U.S. central bankstarts to reverse the restrictive conditions it imposed to beat back inflation, but whether policymakers opt for a half-percentage-point cut or smaller moveremains up in the air. Their choice on how they want to kick off a new easing cycle – less than two months before what is expected to be a close U.S. presidential election – likely hinges more on what signal they want to send ...

Joe Biden entered the White House aiming to become the second coming of Franklin Roosevelt: a president who would respond to a crisis of rare proportions by spending freely. He largely succeeded. The price, however, when added to expenditures by previous administrations, is now being paid by the two candidates vying to succeed him. The first debate between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, a Republican, showed just how limited the appetite is for big-ticket spending. They squared off on Tuesday about many ...

China’s persistent consumption slowdown traces back to the country’s real estate slump, and its deep ties to local government finances — and debt. The bulk of Chinese household wealth went into real estate in the last two decades, before Beijing began cracking down on developers’ high reliance on debt in 2020. Now, the values of those properties are falling, and developers have reduced land purchases. That’s cutting significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts. They predicted that from June ...

Mixed newsflow makes the Fed decision a close call US retail sales in August were stronger than anticipated, rising by 0.1% month-on-month versus the -0.2% consensus, while July’s growth rate was revised up to 1.1% from the initial 1% reported. The control group, which excludes volatile items and has a better tracking record for broader consumer spending, grew 0.3% as expected, but again there was a 0.1pp upward revision to July’s growth rate – now 0.4%. Industrial production was also stronger than anticipated in August, rising by 0.8% MoM versus ...

Following a slew of data released over the weekend from China that painted a fairly bleak outlook for its economy, analysts have tapered their expectations for the country’s full year GDP growth. “There hasn’t been much good news in this latest round of data, and this has been the pattern for the last few months,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of international trade and economics at Cornell University, on CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Monday. “Both the long term issues related to property prices and so on, and the short term ...

Top White House economic adviser Lael Brainard declared that the U.S. economy had turned the corner in bringing down inflation and it was now time to focus on safeguarding jobs and growth. Two days before the Federal Reserve is expected to begin a long-awaited monetary easing cycle, Brainard said that inflation was returning to pre-pandemic levels without the considerable job losses and growth slowdown that were previously predicted. “Today, we are at an important turning point. Inflation is coming back down close to normal levels, and it is important to ...

German investor morale darkened more than expected in September, the ZEW economic research institute said on Tuesday, as the assessment of the economic situation continued its downward trend. The economic sentiment index fell to 3.6 points from 19.2 points in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had pointed to a reading of 17.0. “The hope for a swift improvement in the economic situation is visibly fading,” said ZEW president Achim Wambach. Expectations are plummeting because there is simply no light at the end of the tunnel, said Alexander Krueger, chief economist ...