Dollar jumps as soaring US job growth beats expectations

The dollar strengthened on Friday after data showed U.S. employers hired far more workers than expected in March, potentially delaying anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 303,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 200,000 jobs, with estimates ranging from 150,000 to 250,000.

The dollar index was last up 0.432% at 104.67. It has had a turbulent week, falling from a five-month high to a two-week low after an unexpected slowdown in U.S. services growth supported expectations of Fed rate cuts.

U.S. interest rate futures pared back the odds of a rate cut in June to 54.5% after the release of the jobs report, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

“It definitely pushes out rate-cut expectations. You can see the market is already pricing after September now. That should continue to underpin dollar strength on a broad basis,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jeffries.

Investors have reeled in their expectations of how much the Fed might cut rates this year, with U.S. rate futures now pricing in two cuts in 2024.

But ongoing strength in the economy, along with a sweep higher in prices of commodities, including oil, copper, coffee and cocoa, is complicating the inflation picture.

The dollar rebounded after comments on Thursday from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who is not a voter on this year’s policy-setting committee, that rate cuts might not be required this year if inflation continues to stall.

Wall Street closed sharply lower Thursday as Federal Reserve officials indicated an interest rate cut may not occur so soon.

“Any comments from Federal Reserve speakers, whether they’re voters or not, that support that more hawkish stance does make the market a bit jittery,” said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.

“Add to that geopolitical tension and that is also unnerving the market. The other thing is commodity prices,” she added.

Against the dollar, the Japanese yen weakened 0.26% to 151.735, edging closer to the key 152 level.

Japanese authorities have continued to push back against excessive currency weakness, and will likely intervene in the currency market to buy the yen if it breaks well below 152 per dollar, former top Japanese currency official Tatsuo Yamazaki said on Thursday.

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday reiterated the government’s resolve to take appropriate action against sharp yen falls.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the Japanese central bank could “respond with monetary policy” if weakness in the yen affected the nation’s economy in ways that are hard to ignore, the Asahi newspaper reported on Friday.

Ueda also said inflation would likely accelerate from “summer toward autumn” as bumper pay hikes push up prices, his strongest hint yet that another interest rate hike was possible in coming months.

Elsewhere, the euro was last down 0.39% at 1.0794, while sterling eased 0.53% to 1.258. The Aussie was last down 0.58% to 0.655.

In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.98% to $66,608, while ether was $3,239, down 2.59%.
Source: Reuters (Additional reporting by Brigid Riley in Tokyo; Editing by Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Nomiyama and Paul Simao)