Dry Bulk Market: Australian Coal Exports to China on the Rise


Source: Banchero Costa
According to Banchero Costa, “Australia is the second largest exporter of coal worldwide, with 25.6% of global seaborne coal exports in Jan-Sep 2023, quite far behind Indonesia which had a 36.4% share in Jan-Sep 2023. Coal shipments from Australia have been drastically affected in recent years by the country being backlisted by Mainland China, previously Australia’s largest customer. That said, Australian exporters have been relatively successful in finding new markets limiting the impact on overall volumes. In 2020, Australian coal exports fell sharply by -7.1% y-o-y to 361.2 mln t, from 388.9 mln tonnes in 2019, based on AXS Marine data. In 2021, volumes out of Australia remained essentially flat at 356.9 mln t, or -1.2% y-o-y. In the 12 months of 2022, shipments from Australia declined further by -7.8% y-o-y to 329.1 mln tonnes.
“The main coal export terminals in Australia are Newcastle (77.7 mln tonnes loaded in Jan-Sep 2023), Gladstone (49.7 mln t), Dalrymple Bay (44.9 mln t), Hay Point (29.1 mln t), Abbot Point (24.3 mln t), Port Kembla (4.8 mln t), Brisbane (1.7 mln t), Whyalla (0.2 mln t). The majority (56%) of coal volumes shipped from Australia in Jan-Sep 2023 were loaded on Panamax or Post-Panamax tonnage, with 41% of volumes shipped on Capesize vessels, and 3% on Handy or Supra tonnage. There have been quite remarkable reshuffles in terms of trade patterns over the last few years, driven by political considerations. Coal exports from Australia to Mainland China declined by -99.3% y-o-y in Jan-Dec 2021, to just 0.5 mln tonnes, from 66.6 mln t in 2020”, the shipbroker said.

Source: Banchero Costa
“In Jan-Sep 2023, shipments from Australia to China surged back as relations normalized, to 38.7 mln tonnes, from 0.2 mln t in Jan-Sep 2022, but still below the 64.6 mln t of Jan-Sep 2020. Pretty much the opposite happened to India. In 2021, Australia exported 70.1 mln t of coal to India, up +35.8% y-o-y, from 51.6 mln in 2020. In 2022, however, shipments from Australia to India slowed down by -21.6% y-o-y to 54.9 mln tonnes, due to a greater availability of Indonesian coal. In Jan-Sep 2023, Australia exported 37.7 mln t of coal to India, down -9.2% y-o-y from 41.5 mln t in JanSep 2022. The top destination however is still Japan, with 76.1 mln tonnes in JanSep 2023, down -14.7% y-o-y, but still accounting for 29.9% of Australian coal exports. China now accounts for 15.2% of Australia’s coal exports, with India 14.8%, Korea 9.5%, Taiwan 9.0%, Vietnam 5.9%, and the EU at 5.4%”, Banchero Costa concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide