FranceAgriMer raises non-EU soft wheat export forecast again

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased its forecast for French soft wheat exports outside the European Union this season to 13.45 million tonnes from the 13.3 million estimated last month.

The projected exports for the 2019/20 season that ends on June 30, which would mark a record volume, would be 39.1% above 2018/19, FranceAgriMer’s cereal supply and demand data showed.

The office has now increased its non-EU export outlook for soft wheat for nine months in a row since giving an initial projection of 11 million tonnes last September.

French exports have been boosted this season by supplies from a bumper 2019 harvest, reduced competition from top wheat exporter Russia, and strong demand from countries such as China and Morocco.

FranceAgriMer kept its estimate for French soft wheat exports within the EU at 7.6 million tonnes.

The raised non-EU export outlook outweighed a 100,000 tonne cut to expected livestock feed demand and contributed to FranceAgriMer lowering its forecast for soft wheat stocks at the end of 2019/20 to 2.8 million tonnes from 2.9 million last month.

The revised stocks estimate was 10.9% above the 2018/19 level.

For barley, the office cut its estimate of end-of-season stocks to 1.7 million tonnes from 1.85 million tonnes, as it raised expected non-EU and intra-EU exports by over 100,000 tonnes each.

However, it reduced projected barley malt exports by 80,000 tonnes.

Forecast maize stocks were trimmed to 2.1 million tonnes from 2.2 million tonnes, reflecting increased livestock feed demand.

For durum wheat, the variety used in pasta, FranceAgriMer cut expected 2019/20 stocks to 140,000 tonnes from 215,000 last month, as increased exports outweighed a slight cut to expected domestic demand.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz; Editing by Mark Potter)