Leading indicators point to growth losing momentum in Europe

The OECD Composite leading indicators (CLIs), designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend, point to growth losing momentum in Europe, but a stable growth in other major OECD economies.

In the United Kingdom and in euro area as a whole, including Germany, France and Italy, the CLIs anticipate growth losing momentum, driven by a contraction in consumer confidence indicators and the surge of inflation. Among major OECD economies outside Europe, the CLIs remain above trend and continue to signal stable growth in the United States as well as in Japan and Canada.

Among major emerging-market economies, the CLIs for China (industrial sector) and India continue to point to stable growth, whereas in Brazil the CLI continues to anticipate slowing growth.

The CLIs aim to anticipate fluctuations in economic activity over the next six to nine months based on a range of forward-looking indicators such as order books, confidence indicators, building permits, long-term interest rates, new car registrations and many more. Most indicators are available up to March 2022. It is worth noting that ongoing uncertainties related to COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine are resulting in higher than usual fluctuations in the CLI and its components. As such, the CLIs should continue to be interpreted with care and their magnitude should be regarded as an indication of the strength of the signal rather than as a measure of growth in economic activity.
Source: OECD