New study reports large climate impact from Israel-Hamas war

Greenhouse gas emissions from the first two months of the Israel-Hamas war are already estimated to be greater than the annual emissions of 20 individual countries and territories, according to a new study released Jan. 9.

The projected emissions from the first 60 days of the conflict are estimated to be 281,315 mtCO2e, according to the paper titled “A Multitemporal Snapshot of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Israel-Gaza Conflict” and published on the Social Science Research Network.

“This is roughly the equivalent of 75 coal-fired power plants operating for a year,” according to the study, co-authored by Benjamin Neimark, a senior lecturer at London’s Queen Mary University.

These estimates include intermediate emissions generated from bombs, rockets and artillery, as well as flight time for bomb raids, and the delivery of materiel via cargo jet.

More than half of these emissions emanate from supply flights, with over 200 flights carrying 10,000 mt of goods, mostly from the US.

“If we include war infrastructure built by both Israel and Hamas, including the Hamas’ tunnel network and Israel’s protective fence or Iron Wall,” the total emissions increase to 450,000 mtCO2e, “which is more than over 33 individual countries and territories”, the study said.

The academics who published the study admitted that their research is “only a conservative snapshot of a few carbon intensive activities,” adding that this study will need to be peer reviewed, with a more comprehensive emissions analysis of the conflict needed.

The study also noted that there will be substantial carbon costs for reconstructing Gaza.

“Rebuilding Gaza will entail total annual emissions figure higher then over 130 countries, putting on them par with that of New Zealand,” the paper said.

Military emissions

Concerns around the climate impact of rising conflict globally have intensified amid wider calls for military emissions to be calculated and included in international reporting.
Military emissions can account for a sizeable tranche of a country’s overall emissions.

A recent report published by the Scientists for Global Responsibility and the Conflict and Environment Observatory estimated the total military carbon footprint at 5.5% of global emissions, although other estimates have been lower.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, has already resulted in a surge in carbon emissions and caused significant environmental damage, linked to active fighting, transportation, wildfires, displacement of people, and the estimated costs of rebuilding Ukraine when the war is over.

In a recent report, the Initiative on GHG Accounting of War estimated that emissions in the 18 months of the Russia-Ukraine war have been as high as 150 million mtCO2e, which is more than the annual GHG emissions from a highly industrialized country like Belgium.

The bulk of military emissions were attributed to fuel consumption by Russian troops, followed by fuel demand from Ukrainian soldiers. Use of ammunition, military equipment, construction of fortifications were also key emitters in the war.

Military organizations are currently not required to report climate emissions under international treaties, despite them operating highly carbon-intensive equipment and being large consumers of oil products.
Source: Platts