Strategie Grains raises EU rapeseed crop forecast to 20 mln T

Consultancy Strategie Grains raised its forecast for 2023 European Union rapeseed production this year to 20.0 million tonnes from 19.5 million a month earlier, citing favourable crop conditions in much of Europe.

The revised forecast was also above estimated 2022 output, which Strategie Grains put at 19.4 million tonnes.

Most of Europe has seen regular rain in the past month, with the exception of Spain, boosting soil moisture after a dry end to winter.

The European Commission also raised its official forecast of 2023 EU rapeseed production to 20 million tonnes in a monthly update last week.

In an oilseed report, Strategie Grains trimmed its outlook for this year’s EU sunflower seed crop by 100,000 tonnes to 11.2 million, as a cut to expected production in drought-affected Spain offset good conditions elsewhere, it said.

Projected sunflower seed output would nonetheless be 2 million tonnes above the 2022 volume that was curbed by widespread drought in Europe.

The increased harvest outlook in rapeseed would add to supply pressure after large stocks expected at the end of this season, Strategie Grains said, reiterating it saw potential for a further price fall on Euronext futures COMQ3.

However, downward price momentum may abate if rapeseed imports from Ukraine are banned in some eastern EU countries, as currently being discussed following an influx of grain this season, it added.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz Editing by Tomasz Janowski)